Threat increases as Jeanne’s forecast shifts westward

As Hurricane Jeanne charged toward an apparent collision with the Florida Coast by late Saturday or early Sunday, forecasters warned the storm could pound South Florida with powerful gusts and torrential rains, with the first round of squalls to arrive early this morning.

About 800,000 Florida residents were urged to evacuate from coastal areas by this morning and the rest to immediately complete preparations. Conditions were to deteriorate sharply by this evening, and the tempest was to rage through the night, forecasters said.

A hurricane warning was posted for almost the entire Florida east coast, including Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties, as well as Lake Okeechobee.

At 5 a.m., Jeanne was about 240 miles east of the southeastern coast of Florida. It was moving toward the west at 14 mph, which would bring it near or over the Abaco Islands in the next few hours, near or over the remainder of the northwestern Bahamas later today and approach the southeastern coast of Florida tonight or early Sunday.

The forecast track was shifted westward this morning, increasing the potential threat to South Florida as it seemed less likely that Jeanne would turn before making landfall.

It could make a last-minute turn north. But don’t count on it, said Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County. “It could turn just before the coast if we’re lucky, but if we’re lucky, somebody else isn’t,” he said. “All it takes is a 40-mile deviation south to have hurricane conditions in South Florida.”

By Sunday afternoon, the winds should start to die down for most of the tri-county area. But because Jeanne was forecast to turn northeast after landfall, South Florida could experience its outer rain bands for 12 to 24 hours after the storm has passed, said Jim Lushine, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami. Flood watches have been issued through Monday night.

“The rains could very well be heavier Sunday night and Monday, than during the day on Sunday,” he said.

At 5 a.m., Jeanne had sustained winds of 105 mph. Forecasters expected Jeanne to fortify to a Category 3 as it moves into warmer waters and approaches the shoreline. However, the forecast discussion warned that it could become even stronger.

“It would not be a surprise to see Jeanne get stronger than that, and reaching category four status is not out of the question,” according to the discussion.

“We expect it to be a major hurricane by the time it makes landfall,” said Jennifer Pralgo, hurricane center meteorologist.

After seeing three major hurricanes aim at them since mid-August, in Charley, Frances and Ivan, residents might be tired and stressed. But it would be a mistake not to take Jeanne seriously, officials said.

“I know people are frustrated, they’re tired of all this,” said Gov. Jeb Bush, who declared a state of emergency, yet again, in Florida. “Trust me, their governor is as well.”

Added Max Mayfield, director of the hurricane center: “It just seems Florida has that `Kick Me’ sign on it.”

Palm Beach County urged more than 300,000 coastal and mobile home residents to evacuate as of Friday. A mandatory order for residents in evacuation zones was to begin at 7:30 a.m. today. Palm Beach County also was to open 16 shelters this morning, including the South Florida Fairgrounds for residents with special needs.

In Broward County, about 140,000 residents were to evacuate, including those who live in mobile homes and east of State Road A1A by this morning. Broward Mayor Ilene Lieberman declared a state of emergency.

In Miami-Dade County, as of 7 a.m. today, about 140,000 residents living in barrier islands and mobile homes were ordered to evacuate.

Tolls were lifted on Florida’s Turnpike, northbound from Broward to Wildwood, as well as on the westbound Alligator Alley section of Interstate 75.

Bush urged residents not to horde supplies and said there is plenty of fuel to meet evacuation and everyday needs.

“Buy what you need for your family to be safe, stock up but don’t oversupply,” he said. “This is particularly important for fuel. People in this state need to know there are 160 million gallons of fuel in this state ready for distribution by more than 1,200 delivery trucks.”

He also urged residents not to travel far if they plan to evacuate and warned that many hotels in the center of the state remain filled with victims of Hurricanes Charley and Frances and the rescue crews that have come to Florida to help.

Whether Jeanne turns north before hitting South Florida depends on whether a ridge of high-pressure north of Jeanne’s path will weaken in time to allow the system to slip north, forecasters said.

The latest computer models predicted that the ridge would persist long enough to drive Jeanne into southeastern or east-central Florida before weakening and allowing Jeanne to turn north and then northwestward along the southeast U.S. coast.

Once it reaches South Carolina, Jeanne was expected to make a dogleg turn back to the northeast, following the Middle Atlantic coastline and re-emerging in the ocean near Norfolk, Va., all the while losing strength but posing a major flooding threat.

The system could produce 5 to 10 inches of rain along its path, as well as dangerous rip currents and large swells, the hurricane center said.

In all, more than 1 million Florida coastal residents were asked to evacuate, including those in St. Lucie, Martin, Brevard, Indian River, Volusia and Flagler counties. Still reeling after being slammed by Frances, residents of Martin and St. Lucie counties boarded up homes, filled gas tanks, and stocked up on groceries Friday.

Pam Custis of Fort Pierce cried as she looked at a heap of smashed furniture and flooded carpeting in front of her waterfront condominium, which was ruined during Frances. “This is all we have left,” she said of her condo’s shell. “When this other hurricane comes, this pile is going to be knocking down the rest of it.”

Kennedy Space Center director James Kennedy ordered the base closed to all nonessential personnel Friday. NASA’s spaceport is still repairing damage caused by Frances.

Storm-weary state emergency planners began rushing shipments of ice, water, food and generators to supply depots on the east coast.

Overall, South Florida should see conditions similar to those of Hurricane Frances, Lushine said. That Category 2 system hit near Stuart on Sept. 5, but left widespread damage, flooding and power outages in Palm Beach and Broward counties.

“This looks like almost the twin sister of Frances,” he said. “It’s getting a large eye like Frances, and it’s on a similar collision course, even though it’s coming in at a slightly different angle.”

Northeast Palm Beach County, closest to the projected landfall, would see 50- to 70-mph gusts, or even hurricane conditions with winds greater than 74 mph. Much of the county would see 4 to 6 inches of rain, with some local areas receiving up to 10 inches.

Broward and Miami-Dade counties would see 30- to 45-mph gusts and 2 to 4 inches of rain, with some areas receiving up to 6 inches.

That all assumes the storm doesn’t shift more to the south, in which case South Florida would be lashed with hurricane-force winds and driving rain, forecasters said.

Many residents of Palm Beach County, who are still cleaning up after Frances, cast weary eyes toward Jeanne.

“We’ve just reached some level of normalcy and here it comes again. I’ve never seen anything like this,” said Margaret McFarlane, of Greenacres. “We’ve already refilled our refrigerators, gotten the debris out of the streets and it’s going to happen all over again. I’m not sure how much more people can take.”

Jeanne was blamed for more than 1,100 deaths in Haiti, where it struck last weekend as a tropical storm and caused major flooding.